Corporate Net Zero: Mid-way into the 14th FYP, can China’s FCEV sales meet its 2025 target?

According to the latest vehicle sales data announced by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2022, the production and sales of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) both reached 200 units, a 18.1% and 16.8% increase year-on-year, respectively. From January to September this year, the production and sales of FCEVs totalled 2400 units and 2100 units, a 170.7% and 130.7% increase YoY, respectively.

Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers; BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle, PHEV: Plugin hybrid electric vehicle

In August 2021, five ministries and commissions including NDRC jointly issued the ”  Notice on Launching the Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles 关于启动燃料电池汽车示范应用工作的通知”, making Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong the first three FCEV city clusters. Henan and Hebei clusters entered the club on December 2021, bringing the total number of city cluster to five.

Here is a snapshot of the targets in the five clusters:

The Mid-long-term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) 氢能产业发展中长期规划(2021-2035年) proposes that by 2025, the core technologies and manufacturing processes of FCEVs will be well developed, and the total number of FCEVs will reach about 50,000 units. However, as of today, China has ‘only’ sold around 10,000 FCEVs according to MERICS. It thus remains uncertain that China’s FCEV industry will be able to meet the 50,000 units target by the end of 2025 unless sales pick up rapidly.

(BJX)

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